The global shift from fossil fuels to renewables is gathering pace, yet it still falls short of the Paris climate goals. As countries race to deploy solar, wind, nuclear and other low-carbon technologies, the contours of a new geopolitical landscape are emerging. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policymakers, businesses and communities seeking to harness this momentous change.
Big-Picture Trajectory of the Transition
Today, the world’s primary energy mix stands at roughly 80% fossil fuels and 20% non-fossil sources. According to DNV’s central scenario, that balance will shift to about 50/50 by 2050. From the 2050s onwards, non-fossil energy—solar, wind, hydro, nuclear and bioenergy—will dominate the system.
Yet the pace of decarbonization remains too slow. Under DNV’s forecast, global CO₂ emissions only fall 43% by 2050 and 63% by 2060, delaying net zero until after 2090. This trajectory implies nearly 2.2°C of warming by 2100, far above the Paris target. McKinsey paints a similarly sobering picture, finding that only around 13.5% of needed physical deployment for a Paris-aligned pathway has been achieved so far.
Across scenarios compiled by RFF in its “Global Energy Outlook 2025,” wind and solar reach between 12% and 41% of primary energy by mid-century, depending on policy ambition. These divergent forecasts underscore the gap between aspiration and reality—and highlight how uneven deployment is reshaping global power relations.
Electrification at the Core: The Power Sector
Electrification of end-uses is central to the transition. Global electricity demand is projected to rise roughly 120% by 2060, climbing from 21% of final energy consumption today to 43% in DNV’s forecast. At the same time, fossil fuels’ share of electricity generation falls from 59% to just 4%.
Solar and wind power surge from about 3% of primary energy today to over one-third by 2060. In power generation, renewables provide between 37% and 74% of world electricity by 2050 across major scenarios. Coal declines by 35–94% by 2050 versus 2023, while natural gas trajectories vary: in some reference scenarios it grows by 83%, whereas in ambitious pathways it falls sharply and is paired with carbon capture.
These shifts mean that control over low-cost renewables, grids, storage and gas/LNG corridors will be critical levers of international influence in the coming decades.
Deployment Milestones and Trends
Renewable capacity additions have hit record levels. By the end of 2025, global solar PV capacity will exceed 3,000 GW—nearly half of it in China and one-fifth in Europe. McKinsey notes that from 2022 onward, more solar capacity was added than in all prior years combined. Early 2025 saw solar and wind capacity additions jump over 60% year-on-year.
2023 alone brought a record 562 GW of renewable capacity online, over 60% more than in 2022. At COP28, world leaders set a goal to triple global renewables capacity to 11,000 GW by 2030, implying deployments of roughly 950 GW per year through the late 2020s.
- Global solar PV capacity will exceed 3,000 GW by end-2025
- 2023 additions: 562 GW of renewable capacity worldwide
- Behind-the-meter systems could supply 13% of electricity by 2060
Rapid, distributed deployment is shifting power away from centralized incumbents toward new players—tech manufacturers, local developers and prosumers—dramatically altering traditional energy value chains.
Regional Dynamics and Power Shifts
As the transition advances, regional strengths and vulnerabilities are becoming more pronounced. China, Europe, the United States and emerging economies are each writing their own chapters in this unfolding story.
China accounts for two-thirds of global solar and wind capacity additions since 2022 and nearly three-quarters in early 2025. Europe seeks to avoid new dependencies by scaling local manufacturing and securing critical raw materials. The US faces policy reversals that have delayed its transition by about five years. Meanwhile, emerging economies outside China installed more new solar and wind capacity in early 2025 than either the EU or US, with India alone adding over 20 GW in that period.
Finance, Justice, and the Two-Speed Transition
Global energy-transition investment hit a record USD 2.4 trillion in 2024, up 20% from 2022–2023 levels and more than double the 2019 total. Yet these funds remain concentrated in advanced economies and China, leaving many developing regions underfunded.
This imbalance risks creating a two-speed transition, where wealthy nations decarbonize rapidly while poorer countries remain locked into fossil infrastructure. Reforming multilateral development banks, expanding concessional finance and growing green-bond markets are critical to bridging this gap and ensuring an equitable energy future.
Security, Resilience, and Energy Security
Concerns about supply disruptions and price volatility have driven many countries to favor domestic energy sources. Renewables and local storage systems can reduce import dependence, even if some nations increase coal use in the near term.
Traditional hydrocarbon exporters face long-term demand risk, while importers—particularly in Europe and Asia—stand to gain strategic autonomy. Yet this shift introduces new vulnerabilities in critical minerals, grid cybersecurity and technology monopolies.
Technology Races and Chokepoints
Control over key technologies will shape the new global order. Solar and wind manufacturing, battery production, critical mineral supply chains, advanced grid management and next-generation nuclear and carbon-capture systems are all arenas of intense competition.
- Solar & wind manufacturing: China’s dominance and friend-shoring efforts
- Battery production: securing lithium, cobalt and nickel sources
- Advanced grid software: managing intermittent renewables at scale
- Emerging breakthroughs: small modular reactors and CCS
Charting a Path Forward
The energy transition is a powerful force reshaping geopolitics, trade, finance, technology and security. While progress is accelerating, current trajectories fall short of what is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Governments, businesses and civil society must close deployment gaps, mobilize equitable finance and build resilient, diversified supply chains. By fostering international cooperation on clean energy research, supporting emerging markets and investing in critical infrastructure, stakeholders can steer the transition toward a more stable climate and a balanced global order.
In this new era, success will belong to those who combine ambition with pragmatism, ensuring that the energy revolution empowers all nations and secures a sustainable future for generations to come.
